article · Veterinary and Animal Science
Identifying high-performing dairy cattle early in life is essential for sustainable herd management. An analysis of production records from 349 Holstein, Jersey, and crossbred dairy cows on a commercial farm under subtropical conditions evaluated how first-lactation traits relate to lifetime milk yield. Milk production traits varied significantly by breed, parity, and their interaction, with Holsteins recording the highest yields and production generally increasing with parity. First-lactation daily milk yield showed a strong correlation with estimated lifetime milk yield, serving as the primary predictor. A model combining breed and first-lactation daily milk yield accounted for 74.7 percent of the variation in estimated lifetime yield. Furthermore, an optimal threshold of 16.0 kilograms per day differentiated high lifetime producers with high sensitivity and specificity, showing that early-life yield accurately predicts subsequent lifetime performance.
Dairy farmers face substantial costs when raising replacement heifers without knowing their long-term productivity. Demonstrating that first-lactation daily milk yield reliably predicts lifetime performance gives producers an objective, early benchmark. This allows farmers in subtropical environments to make informed culling and retention decisions sooner, improving herd efficiency and reducing the resources spent maintaining less productive animals.
This research provides an applied, tested predictive benchmark suitable for commercial dairy farms and herd management software providers operating in subtropical regions. The threshold and regression models could be integrated directly into farm management tools to guide herd replacement decisions. Because the analysis relied on historical commercial farm records, the method is near-market, though broader validation across more herds may be needed before widespread deployment.
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Improving lifetime milk yield through the early identification of superior replacement animals is a key objective of sustainable dairy production systems. This study investigated the potential of first-lactation performance indicators to predict lifetime milk yield in dairy cattle managed under subtropical conditions. Historical production records from 349 Holstein, Jersey and crossbred dairy cows maintained at a commercial dairy farm were analysed using linear mixed models, multiple regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Estimated lifetime milk yield (ELMY) was calculated from average daily milk yield and lactation length across recorded lactations. Breed, parity, and their interaction significantly influenced several milk production traits (P < 0.05). Holstein cows exhibited the highest (P<0.05) milk production traits, while milk production increased with advancing parity. Breed-related differences in milk production were evident across parities, with more pronounced variation among breeds at later parities (P 4 –P 5 ) for selected traits. First-lactation daily milk yield (FDMY) was strongly associated with ELMY (r = 0.849, P < 0.001) and emerged as the most important predictor of lifetime milk yield. Final prediction model incorporating FDMY and breed explained 74.7% of the variation in ELMY (adjusted R² = 0.731). Cows classified as high lifetime producers had significantly greater FDMY than medium- and low-producing cows (P < 0.001). Binary logistic regression showed that first-lactation daily milk yield independently predicted high estimated lifetime milk-yield status after adjustment for breed (OR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.45–3.17; P < 0.001), with an overall classification accuracy of 90.6%. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability of FDMY (AUC = 0.917 ± 0.036, P < 0.001), with an optimal threshold of 16.0 kg/day providing 76.2% sensitivity and 93.7% specificity. These findings identify first-lactation milk yield as a promising early-life indicator of subsequent estimated lifetime milk yield.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.vas.2026.100841
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