article · Cogent Food & Agriculture
An analysis of Somalia from 1990 to 2023 examines how economic and environmental conditions affect long-term agricultural output. The investigation focuses on domestic investment, rural population growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and rainfall. The results show that higher domestic investment and expanding rural populations both contribute positively to agricultural productivity over time. Rainfall also serves as a vital positive driver for agricultural yields. In contrast, rising carbon dioxide emissions exert a harmful effect on farm productivity. Overall, the findings underline the necessity of directing capital into agricultural infrastructure, supporting rural human development, curbing carbon emissions, and advancing water management and conservation initiatives to secure long-term agricultural growth and food security.
Agricultural productivity is crucial for sustaining food security and economic development. Understanding the direct influence of rainfall, carbon emissions, and domestic funding allows planners and institutions to design policies that protect farming from climate impacts whilst effectively channelling investments into rural human capital and infrastructure.
The findings could inform policy design, development programmes, and investment planning by government bodies, development agencies, and agricultural infrastructure funders. As an econometric study based on historical data, it does not present a commercial product or technology, placing it at an early policy and strategic planning stage rather than near commercial market deployment.
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This study, conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and Cointegration analysis, explores the dynamic impacts of economic and environmental factors on agricultural productivity in Somalia, spanning from 1990 to 2023. This study incorporates domestic investment, carbon dioxide emissions, rural population growth, and rainfall. The findings, which have significant practical implications, reveal that increasing domestic investment and rural population growth positively influence agricultural output over the long term. This underscores the crucial role of investing in agricultural infrastructure and human capital development. Conversely, higher carbon dioxide emissions negatively impact agricultural productivity, highlighting the urgent need to mitigate climate change effects. Moreover, rainfall emerges as a crucial factor positively affecting agricultural output, emphasizing the importance of water management and conservation efforts. These findings lead to several practical policy recommendations to enhance agricultural productivity in Somalia, including investments in agricultural infrastructure, mitigation of carbon emissions, support for rural development, and promotion of water management and conservation initiatives. Implementing these recommendations can contribute to achieving sustainable agricultural growth, improving food security, and fostering economic development in Somalia, aligning with the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals.
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DOI: 10.1080/23311932.2024.2369204
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