article · PLoS Pathogens
The HIV-1 group M pandemic displays uneven spread across the globe, with subtype C emerging as the globally dominant lineage after expanding rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa. By examining 346 novel pol sequences from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the historical dynamics of major lineages including subtypes A1, C, and D were reconstructed. The origins of subtype C trace back to the 1950s in the southern mining hub of Mbuji-Mayi. In contrast, subtypes A1 and D arose in Kinshasa, whilst subtypes H and J originated in the port city of Matadi. After approximately 15 years of localised transmission in southern regions, subtype C expanded at least three times faster than other lineages circulating in Central and East Africa. These findings indicate that historical and social circumstances, rather than evolutionary adaptations, primarily drove the explosive epidemiological spread of subtype C.
Understanding how major HIV-1 variants emerged and spread clarifies the historical trajectory of the pandemic across sub-Saharan Africa. By identifying distinct geographical launch points and rates of transmission, the findings show how human circumstances influence disease dissemination. Such insights help epidemiologists and public health specialists better understand the drivers behind regional viral expansion.
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Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.
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DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1007976
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