Digital financial inclusion and inclusive growth in Zambia: Evidence from global Findex 2025, FinScope 2025 and macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

This paper examines whether rapid digital financial inclusion in Zambia has translated into inclusive growth outcomes. It combines nationally representative FinScope 2025 survey data, the World Bank Global Findex Database 2025, and macroeconomic indicators from the World Bank, IMF, and Bank of Zambia to assess the evolution and economic implications of financial inclusion. The evidence shows that Zambia has transitioned from a low-access financial system to a mobile money–driven inclusion model. Between 2020 and 2025, overall financial inclusion increased from 69.4 percent to 80.1 percent, while formal inclusion rose from 61.3 percent to 76.4 percent. Zambia also performs above Sub-Saharan African and low-income economy averages in account ownership and digital payment usage. However, significant structural constraints remain, including persistent rural–urban disparities, limited depth of financial product usage, low credit market awareness, and macroeconomic vulnerabilities such as inflation and climate-related shocks. The paper argues that while digital financial inclusion is positively associated with inclusive growth, its impact depends on usage intensity, complementary infrastructure, and institutional quality, rather than access alone. The findings suggest that financial inclusion functions as an enabling platform, rather than a direct driver of development outcomes. In addition, the paper is situated within Zambia’s broader policy architecture for digital transformation and inclusive development, including the Eighth National Development Plan, 2022–2026; the National Digital Transformation Strategy, 2023–2027; the National ICT Policy, 2023; the Data Protection Act No. 3 of 2021; and the National Financial Inclusion Strategy II, 2024–2028. It also draws on regional and continental frameworks, such as the African Union Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa 2020–2030 and the SADC Strategy on Financial Inclusion and SME Access to Finance 2023–2028, as well as global payment-system and digital-finance literature. The results highlight the importance of transitioning from access expansion to usage-driven inclusion under Zambia’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy II (2024–2028), with emphasis on financial health, consumer protection, digital infrastructure, and productive integration of financial services.