Determinants of Seasonal Elephant Habitat Use in Small and Enclosed Conservation Area: Mwea National Reserve, Kenya

Abstract

) habitat use in a small, enclosed conservation area with limited space and no migration corridors. It examined how elephant habitat-use dynamics may influence management strategies, human-wildlife conflict mitigation, and the long-term sustainability of elephant populations in small and isolated protected areas. The study was conducted in Mwea National Reserve, a fenced protected area in Kenya. Elephant spatial distribution was assessed using indirect signs of presence. We conducted 96 straight-line dung transects (250 m each) and 350 m reconnaissance walks across the reserve to document dung occurrence and density. Seasonal elephant distribution was modeled using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) using five environmental predictors. We used the jackknife method to evaluate the relative influence of each predictor on seasonal habitat use. We hypothesized that (i) water and forage availability would primarily determine dry-season habitat use, and (ii) landscape variables would be more influential in the wet season, when water and forage are less limiting. MaxEnt models performed moderately well, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.714 (dry) and 0.664 (wet). In the dry season, the most influential predictors were invasive plant presence (28.9%), proximity to permanent rivers (26.9%), and elevation (26.5%). In the wet season, distance to the reserve boundary was the strongest predictor (38.9%), while NDVI showed stable influence across seasons (16.2% dry, 20.1% wet). Small and isolated conservation areas holding elephants among other large herbivores pose many ecological and management challenges. In Mwea National Reserve, this study found a rapidly growing elephant population, high density, and seasonal shifts in habitat use, primarily driven by water and forage availability. Land elevation, reserve boundaries, and other infrastructure had limited influence on elephant distribution and food access. However, the distribution of invasive plant species overlapped with key elephant foraging sites, thereby restricting access to usable plants in non-invaded areas. Controlling invasive plants can improve forage access and relax browsing pressure on natural vegetation. Maintaining fence integrity and sustained cooperation with the surrounding community is crucial to limit foraging range expansion as well as monitor and reduce human-elephant conflict. The findings of this study provide usable information and spatially explicit guidance for managing savanna elephant populations in small and isolated conservation areas.