Determinants of agricultural productivity in Morocco: An empirical analysis of climatic, technological, and socioeconomic factors

Abstract

Agricultural production in Morocco is increasingly exposed to climate variability and structural transformation pressures. Yet the empirical literature largely examines climatic, technological, and socioeconomic determinants of agricultural productivity in isolation. This study advances the debate by integrating these dimensions within a unified time-series framework using annual data from 1991 to 2021 and the ARDL approach. After confirming cointegration and a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, the findings reveal that structural land-use dynamics dominate long-run productivity outcomes. A 1% expansion in cereal-cultivated land increases agricultural productivity by approximately 1.44%. In contrast, a 1% increase in urbanization reduces productivity by about 5.53%, underscoring the structural costs of land conversion and the reallocation of rural resources. In contrast, technological diffusion and climate variables do not exert statistically significant long-run effects, suggesting that their influence is mediated through indirect channels or constrained by structural rigidities. However, in the short run, internet diffusion and temperature changes exhibit positive and statistically significant effects, indicating that technological access and climatic conditions influence productivity primarily through temporary adjustment mechanisms rather than sustained structural transformation. Robustness checks using FMOLS and CCR estimators largely confirm the ARDL results. By integrating climatic, technological, and socioeconomic dimensions within a unified empirical framework, this study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the structural forces shaping agricultural productivity in Morocco.