Deep Climate Model Distillation for Localized Flood Forecasting in Low-Resource Areas

Abstract

Floods remain among the most devastating natural disasters globally, disproportionately impacting low-resource regions where real-time flood forecasting is constrained by limited computational infrastructure and the scarcity of fine-resolution predictive models. Although state-of-the-art global climate models achieve high predictive accuracy, their scale and computational complexity restrict their applicability in localized and resource-constrained settings. This study proposes a deep climate model distillation framework that transfers knowledge from a high-capacity Fourier Neural Operator (FNO)-based global climate model inspired by FourCastNet into lightweight, regionally adaptive student networks suitable for edge deployment. The framework combines climate variables, satellite observations, and hydrological measurements to improve localized flood prediction. Knowledge transfer is achieved through a multi-objective distillation strategy that combines supervised learning, soft-target alignment, and intermediate feature matching. Experimental evaluation across multiple flood-prone regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia shows that the distilled student model achieves an average classification accuracy of 0.89, an AUC of 0.91, and an F1-score of 0.88, retaining approximately 96.7% of the teacher model’s predictive performance. In continuous discharge estimation, the model attains a mean absolute error of 0.17, RMSE of 0.24, and an R2 score of 0.85. The proposed distillation approach yields an 8× reduction in inference latency and over a 20× reduction in model size, enabling real-time execution on low-power edge devices such as the Raspberry Pi 4 and NVIDIA Jetson Nano. The student model further demonstrates robust regional and temporal generalization, with limited performance degradation in unseen geographic areas and during extreme flood years.