Cost Overrun Risk Assessment for Healthcare Projects: A Modified Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Approach

Abstract

This study investigated the myriad risk factors contributing to cost overruns in healthcare construction projects. It determined the impact of managerial, financial, workerpower, and environmental considerations, focusing on the intricacies of healthcare facilities. By employing a modified fuzzy group decision-making approach (MFGDMA), the research methodically quantified the subjective perceptions of diverse stakeholders involved in project execution. Results reveal that labor-related issues—such as shortages, productivity, and skill deficits—along with managerial delays, particularly in decision-making and change orders, significantly contribute to cost escalations. The study’s novelty lies in its integration of fuzzy logic to defuzzify risk perceptions, providing a clear hierarchy of risk factors, which assists in the strategic prioritization of risk mitigation efforts. Additionally, it demonstrates a risk response plan considering the fuzzy-based risk assessment findings, which can serve as a hands-on tool guiding healthcare project practitioners to develop their risk management plans and monitor cost overrun risks throughout the execution phases of a project. The application of the research findings suggests policy implications for improved risk management frameworks toward the development of more-resilient and -efficient strategies for managing healthcare construction projects without prohibitive cost overruns.