Comparative Evaluation of Traffic Load Prediction Models for Intelligent Transportation Systems Using High-Resolution Urban Data

Abstract

Short-term traffic load prediction is a fundamental component of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), supporting real-time monitoring, congestion mitigation, and adaptive traffic management in smart cities. Owing to the dynamic and nonlinear nature of urban traffic, identifying prediction models that align with real-world traffic dynamics remains a key challenge. This study presents a comparative evaluation of data-driven traffic load prediction models using high-resolution one-minute traffic data collected from a major urban roundabout in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The evaluated models include regression-based machine learning approaches and recurrent deep learning architectures, which are assessed under consistent preprocessing and evaluation conditions. Model performance is evaluated using standard error metrics and complemented by temporal and residual analyses to examine prediction behavior under different traffic regimes. The optimized GRU model achieved the best predictive accuracy with an RMSE of 149.12 veh/h, followed closely by the optimized LSTM model (RMSE = 150.85 veh/h). The results indicate that while conventional machine learning models can effectively capture overall traffic trends under relatively stable conditions, recurrent deep learning models demonstrate stronger capability in modeling nonlinear temporal dependencies and rapid traffic fluctuations when properly configured. In addition, a variability-based regime analysis was conducted to evaluate model robustness under different traffic demand dynamics, revealing that model performance advantages are context-dependent rather than universal. The findings highlight the importance of systematic comparative evaluation and data-driven model selection for developing reliable traffic prediction components in real-time ITS applications and sustainable urban mobility planning.