Community perceptions of climate change–induced vulnerabilities in Nigeria: local indicators and livelihood impacts

Abstract

Protected-area landscapes across Sub-Saharan Africa face escalating climate-induced disruption of livelihoods, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, yet how fringe communities perceive and respond to these changes remains poorly documented in Nigeria. Guided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework, conceptualizing vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, this study examined climate change perception, livelihood vulnerability, and perceived wildlife change among 180 households across nine communities surrounding Old Oyo National Park (OONP), using structured questionnaires and Chi-square tests. Climate change awareness was near-universal (96.7%), and respondents overwhelmingly regarded changes as detrimental (97.8%), reporting declining rainfall (73.7%), delayed onset (92.6%), and variability (92.2%). This exposure translated into pronounced sensitivity, reflected in diminishing water sources (90.6%), narrowing crop diversity (87.2%), rising food insecurity (86.7%), and perceived wildlife rarity (94.5%), most pronounced for grasscutter (81.6%), patas monkey (71.7%), and bushbuck (69.3%). Adaptive capacity remained largely reactive, centered on food storage and shelter provision (96.1% each), with limited water conservation uptake (39.4%). Perceptions varied significantly by age, education, and occupation (p < 0.05), but not by gender, marital status, or religion, revealing a disconnect between sensitivity and adaptive capacity that underscores the need for targeted climate information and adaptation support in protected-area fringe communities. The study highlights the potential for interpreting climate-induced sensitivity and vulnerability factors as significant contributors to the emergence of collective human trauma in communities adjacent to OONP.