Climate variability, trend, and associated risks: Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract The study focused on analyzing the variability and trends of climate parameters in the Tana sub-basin. Various statistical methods and indices were employed to assess precipitation and temperature patterns in the region. The findings indicated a statistically non-significant increasing trend in rainfall across the sub-basin, with values ranging from 1.64 to 5.37 mm/year. In terms of temperature, there was an increasing trend observed, but it was also not statistically significant. The seasonality index ranged between 0.87 and 1.03, indicating different rainfall distribution patterns. In 36.69% of the sub-basin, rainfall occurs in marked seasonal patterns with a long dry season, and the remaining (63.31%) is concentrated in 3 or fewer months, indicating a different rainfall distribution pattern. In addition, the study assessed the precipitation concentration and found that 57.5% of the rainfall data exhibited a strong irregular concentration, 41.5% showed an irregular concentration, and 1% exhibited a moderate concentration. The study underscores the presence of climate variability and trends in the Tana sub-basin, emphasizing the need to align agricultural and water resource management practices with the observed climate variability.