Climate variability perception and its influence on crop diversification as an adaptation strategy among smallholder farmers in south-western Uganda

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face climate-induced threats to food and income security. While crop diversification is recognised as a sustainable adaptation strategy, its relationship with smallholder farmers’ climate variability perception across seasons and agro-ecological zones (AEZs) remains underexplored. Using survey data from 583 smallholder farmers in south-western Uganda, this study examined how climate variability perception across seasons and AEZs influences crop diversification and cropland allocation. Climate variability perception differed significantly across seasons and AEZs. The long rains season was perceived as more erratic and shorter. The short rains season was perceived as prolonged. For the long rains season, climate variability perception was greatest in the water-stressed AEZ and lowest in the humid AEZ. For the short rains season, it was greatest in the water-stressed and humid AEZs and lowest in the moderately humid AEZ. Climate variability perception influenced crop diversification heterogeneously. Farmers in the water-stressed AEZ tended to diversify more during the long rains season (β = 0.039, p < 0.10). In the humid AEZ, farmers diversified less during the short rains season (β = − 0.084, p < 0.01) but increased land allocation to tubers (β = 2.3, p < 0.05). In the moderately humid AEZ, climate variability perception was associated with crop specialisation (β = − 0.078, p < 0.05). The findings demonstrate that crop diversification is a context-dependent adaptation strategy, varying seasonally and spatially in response to differentiated climatic risks. Adaptation interventions should account for seasonal and agro-ecological differences for climate-resilient smallholder production systems in SSA.