Climate trends and their linkages with gender-based perceptions in East Shewa Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change poses a major threat to agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa, with Ethiopia being particularly vulnerable due to its strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change, including gender differences in these perceptions, is critical for designing effective and inclusive adaptation strategies. Therefore this study examined historical climate trends and gender-based perceptions of climate change among smallholder farmers in the East Shewa Zone, Ethiopia. A cross-sectional research design was employed, with data collected from 446 households through structured surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews. Historical temperature and rainfall records (1992–2024) were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency. Climate trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, while household perceptions were assessed using a Likert scale and Severity Index (SI). Qualitative data were analyzed using narrative analysis. The results revealed a significant warming trend across the study area, with mean annual temperature increasing by 0.057°C year⁻¹ (p < 0.001). The highest warming rates were observed in Boset and Fantale, where maximum temperatures increased by up to 0.141°C year⁻¹, indicating increasing exposure to heat stress. Rainfall analysis showed an overall declining trend across monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. Annual rainfall declined significantly by 4.78 mm year⁻¹ based on Sen’s slope estimator (p = 0.034). Kiremt rainfall also showed a significant declining trend (−3.80 mm year⁻¹; p = 0.040), while Bega (−1.45 mm year⁻¹) and Belg (−0.90 mm year⁻¹) exhibited declining but statistically non-significant trends, reflecting substantial interannual variability. Significant rainfall reductions were also observed during May and June, coinciding with the onset of the main cropping season. Farmers’ perceptions closely corresponded with observed climatic trends, with 90.1% of respondents perceiving increasing temperatures and 77.6% perceiving declining rainfall. Significant gender differences were observed (p < 0.05), with male-headed households reporting greater awareness of increasing temperature and declining rainfall. Therefore, strengthening gender-responsive extension services, climate information systems, water harvesting, supplementary irrigation, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and soil and water conservation practices is essential for enhancing the resilience of smallholder farming systems in the East Shewa Zone.