Climate change, natural resource conflicts and insecurity in Nigeria: implication for food security

Abstract

Introduction: Climate change and rising insecurity have intensified natural resource conflicts in Nigeria, posing serious threats to agricultural productivity and household food security. This study examines the climate-conflict-food security nexus, focusing on how environmental changes contribute to conflicts and how these dynamics affect economic performance and food security outcomes. Methods: The study utilized data from the 2018/2019 General Household Survey (LSMS-ISA) and the 2022 National Agricultural Sample Census (NASC), capturing both household- and community-level information. Descriptive statistics were employed to assess patterns of climate shocks and conflicts, while econometric techniques-including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Ordered Logit, and Ordered Probit models-were used to analyze the drivers of food security. Results: Findings reveal that climate-related shocks and insecurity significantly increase resource-based conflicts and have strong negative effects on food security. Among the various shocks, flooding emerged as the most damaging disaster. In contrast, asset ownership was found to enhance household resilience and mitigate adverse effects. Discussion: The results highlight the need for integrated policy responses that address both environmental and security challenges. Policies promoting climate adaptation, improved natural resource governance, and conflict-sensitive interventions are essential to strengthen food security and resilience in Nigeria.