review · Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
A review of 511 research publications from 2010 to 2023 examined the consequences of climate change for malaria and twenty neglected tropical diseases. Scientific focus remains unevenly distributed, with most evidence concentrating on malaria, dengue, chikungunya, and leishmaniasis, while other conditions remain neglected. Furthermore, existing research rarely investigates adaptation measures, addressing them in only five per cent of studies, whereas mitigation appears in thirty-four per cent. The consequences of climate shifts are non-linear, vary by region and pathology, and change over time, making global projections unreliable. Geographic discrepancies are also prominent, as studies often focus on wealthier, low-burden nations with strong healthcare systems, leaving highly vulnerable regions, such as East Africa for leishmaniasis, unexamined. Standardised, collaborative modelling frameworks are essential to clarify these complex direct and indirect interactions.
Climate change is shifting disease patterns, but unequal and incomplete research creates dangerous blind spots. Without balanced data that covers vulnerable, high-burden regions and prioritises adaptation alongside mitigation, public health authorities cannot accurately forecast outbreaks or allocate protective resources effectively. Collaborative, standardised modelling is critical to direct funding and interventions where they will be needed most.
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To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.
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DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trae026
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