article · European Journal of Sustainable Development Research
This research evaluates how climate change affects thermal comfort in a representative residential building in Marrakech under current conditions and future climate projections for 2050 and 2080. Using dynamic simulations across 135 configurations, five passive envelope strategies were assessed alongside three air infiltration rates. The results show a distinct transition toward overheating, which rises from 36 percent of annual hours in 2020 to 51 percent by 2080 in the baseline dwelling. Individual passive solutions show varied results: insulation enhances winter comfort but traps heat during warmer periods, solar glazing reduces peak overheating in exposed rooms, and phase change materials offer minimal gains due to inadequate nocturnal cooling. A combined strategy yields the best outcome, cutting extreme overheating by up to 986 hours annually, though its efficacy falls late in the century. Exposed rooms suffer overheating over 30 percent above whole-building estimates.
Rising temperatures threaten indoor comfort, particularly in hot climates. By assessing building performance across future decades, this work demonstrates that standard measures such as insulation can inadvertently worsen indoor heat if applied without adequate cooling strategies. It shows architects and planners why residential designs must address long-term warming, room-specific solar exposure, and airtightness rather than relying solely on whole-building averages.
This simulation-based work offers guidance for architects, building material developers, and housing authorities designing climate-resilient dwellings in hot regions. The results could inform passive design guidelines and integrated envelope packages combining glazing, ventilation control, and insulation. As the findings are derived entirely from dynamic computer simulations of a representative dwelling without physical prototyping, the approach remains at an early, analytical research stage prior to real-world operational testing.
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The long-term thermal performance of residential buildings, as well as the thermal comfort of their occupants, is strongly dependent on external climatic conditions. In this context, this study investigates the evolution of thermal comfort in a representative residential dwelling located in Marrakech under current (2020) and future climate conditions (2050 and 2080) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Dynamic simulations were conducted using EnergyPlus under free-running conditions to isolate envelope-related thermal behaviour. Five envelope configurations were evaluated: a reference case without thermal efficiency measures, a configuration incorporating expanded polystyrene (EPS) insulation, a configuration using double low-emissivity tinted glazing (6/13/6), a phase change material (PCM) configuration, and a combined strategy integrating multiple passive measures. Each configuration was assessed under three air infiltration rates (0, 1.5, and 2.2 ACH), with thermal comfort analysed at both building and room scales, resulting in a simulation matrix of 135 configurations. Results show a clear shift from a mixed discomfort regime, where both underheating and overheating occur, toward conditions increasingly dominated by overheating. In the baseline case (reference envelope, 1.5 ACH), overheating-related discomfort rises from 36% of annual hours in 2020 to 51% in 2080, largely driven by extreme overheating events. Envelope strategies show contrasting performance: insulation improves winter comfort but promotes heat retention under warmer climates; glazing reduces peak overheating in solar-exposed spaces; and phase change materials provide limited benefit due to insufficient night cooling. The combined strategy performs best, reducing extreme overheating by up to 986 h/year, although its effectiveness declines under late-century conditions. Room-level analysis further reveals substantial spatial variability, with highly exposed rooms experiencing overheating levels more than 30% above whole-building estimates. These findings highlight the need for integrated passive design strategies that account for airtightness, spatial variability, and future climate conditions.
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DOI: 10.29333/ejosdr/19112
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