Climate change impacts on the distribution of three agromyzid leaf-mining flies in Morocco: implications for agricultural pest management

Abstract

Abstract Background Climate change poses significant challenges for agricultural pest management, particularly concerning the distribution of phytophagous insects. This study investigates the current and future distribution patterns of three economically important leaf-mining fly species (Agromyzidae) in Morocco: Cerodontha ( Cerodontha ) denticornis , Phytoliriomyza oasis , and Phytoliriomyza perpusilla . We used MaxEnt modeling with bioclimatic data and occurrence records (2014–2024) to model current potential distributions, analyze species–environmental relationships, and project future range shifts under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060. Results Our models demonstrated robust performance (AUC: 0.965–0.990; TSS: 0.689–0.851) and identified precipitation as the primary driver of these three species’ distributions. Currently, suitable habitats are largely concentrated in northern Morocco, particularly the Rif Mountains, with varying degrees of presence in the Atlas Mountains and Atlantic Plain. P. perpusilla shows the broadest distribution (25.8% of Morocco's territory), followed by C. ( C. ) denticornis (9.4%) and P. oasis (3.3%). Future projections indicate species-specific responses to climate change, with P. oasis showing the highest vulnerability (projected habitat reduction of 38–49%), while C. ( C. ) denticornis and P. perpusilla demonstrate greater resilience but with substantial range shifts. Conclusions These findings provide crucial insights for developing proactive pest management strategies and understanding climate change impacts on agricultural systems in North Africa.