article · International Journal of Climatology
Debundscha, located in the Gulf of Guinea, is one of the wettest places globally, yet local rainfall trends and their drivers have remained poorly understood despite growing issues with disasters, falling crop yields, and water scarcity. An analysis of rainfall records found non-statistically significant decreasing trends in annual and seasonal rainfall in Debundscha between 1972 and 2009, as well as in nearby stations, while Limbe recorded statistically significant increases between 1985 and 2015. Regression analysis identified several large-scale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that control precipitation in the wider region, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, global sea surface temperatures, and various indices related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The specific climate drivers vary across individual observation stations, with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and global sea surface temperatures demonstrating the strongest link to annual precipitation in Debundscha.
Understanding shifts in local weather patterns and their global atmospheric drivers is vital for regions experiencing severe hydrometeorological disasters and declining agricultural yields. Identifying the specific oceanic and atmospheric modes that govern local rainfall enables the development of better sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts, helping regional authorities and communities improve water management and protect local food production.
The findings provide early-stage foundational insights that could inform regional meteorological services and commercial climate forecasting providers. Developers of seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction models, as well as agricultural and water resource management platforms, could use these specific oceanic and atmospheric drivers to enhance predictive tools. At present, the research represents early-stage analytical work rather than an operational forecasting product or service.
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ABSTRACT Debundscha is ranked amongst the top rainiest places on Earth, yet there is a paucity of information on rainfall trends and their drivers in the area. However, the increasing frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters, declining crop yields, and rising water scarcity in the area underscore the urgent need to investigate changing rainfall patterns and the climatic modes influencing rainfall in the area. Trend analysis using the Mann‐Kendall test shows non‐statistically significant declining trends in annual and seasonal rainfall in Debundscha (1972–2009) and other stations, except Limbe, which exhibits statistically significant increasing trends in annual and seasonal rainfall (1985–2015). Statistical analysis using partial least squares regression reveals that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole Western Pool Index, global sea surface temperature (GSST), Multivariate ENSO Index, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are the dominant climatic modes influencing annual and seasonal rainfall in the study area. However, a different set of climatic modes affects rainfall at each station, with AMO and GSST strongly associated with annual rainfall in Debundscha. Analysing rainfall in high precipitation areas like Debundscha is essential for understanding how these regions are affected by changing climate patterns. On the other hand, identifying the main climatic modes influencing local rainfall is crucial for creating accurate seasonal and sub‐seasonal forecasts. These forecasts can help reduce hydrometeorological risks, improve water management, and increase agricultural productivity.
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DOI: 10.1002/joc.70009
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