article · Discover Food
An empirical assessment of Ethiopia between 2000 and 2023 demonstrates a statistically significant long-run equilibrium linking food security and economic growth. The analysis identifies mutual, bidirectional influences in the short term, with economic growth lifting food security by 35.31 kilocalories per person daily, and food security increasing economic growth by 0.013 percent. Over the long run, a one percent rise in gross domestic product per capita expands food availability by approximately 73 kilocalories per person per day. Shocks to economic growth produce positive but temporary benefits for food security levels. Projections for the subsequent decade anticipate a gradual rise in food security alongside moderating economic growth, highlighting the value of investments in climate resilience, infrastructure, and agricultural productivity.
Demonstrating how national income and nutrition reinforce one another provides vital clarity for planning development interventions. Evidence that economic gains reliably enhance caloric intake, and that better-fed populations generate higher economic output, justifies public and philanthropic funding for programmes that combine agricultural yield improvements, rural infrastructure, and climate resilience measures.
The abstract outlines macroeconomic modelling and forecasting rather than a deployable technology or market product. These analytical findings offer strategic utility for development finance institutions, agricultural planning bodies, and economic consultancy services assessing national investment risks. Because the research relies on aggregated historical datasets and a single proxy metric, it represents early-stage macro-level evidence far removed from direct commercial application.
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Abstract This study examines the relationship and causality between food security and economic growth in Ethiopia. It employs a Vector Error Correction (VEC) modeling, the Wald test, impulse response functions (IRFs), Johansen cointegration analysis, and forecasting techniques. The dataset spans from 2000 to 2023 and is drawn from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT). Both pre- and post-estimation procedures were conducted to ensure robustness and validity. Missing values were addressed through interpolation, while extrapolation was applied for forecasting purposes. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between food security and economic growth. Short-run results reveal significant bidirectional effects, with economic growth positively influencing food security by 35.31 kcal/capita/day, and food security also exerting a positive impact on economic growth by 0.013%, while the error correction terms confirm convergence toward the long-run equilibrium. The long-run elasticity estimate indicates that a 1% increase in GDP per capita increases food security by approximately 73 kcal/capita/day. The Wald test further supports bidirectional causality, and the IRFs show that shocks to economic growth have a positive but transitory effect on food security. Forecasting results project a gradual upward trend in food security over the next decade, whereas economic growth is expected to moderate. These findings underscore the importance of policies aimed at infrastructure development, climate resilience, yield gap reduction, human capital formation, and technological advancement. However, the study is limited by its reliance on aggregated national-level data and a single proxy for food security.
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DOI: 10.1007/s44187-026-01188-1
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