Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Utilizing Two-Tier Classification Framework Optimized with Adapted Variable Neighborhood Search Algorithm

Abstract

Accurately assessing a patient’s likelihood of developing cardiovascular conditions is essential for proper case classification and for ensuring timely, targeted medical intervention. To address this need, the present study employs a carefully optimized machine learning framework to predict such risks within cardiology settings. A hybrid architecture is proposed that combines convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with cutting-edge gradient boosting classifiers, namely CatBoost and LightGBM, whose performance is further enhanced by metaheuristic optimization. The system adopts a two-layer design capable of capturing complex data structures while supporting accurate classification of cardiac patients and their risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Extensive evaluation on real-world data confirms the framework’s effectiveness for binary classification, with the best models reaching an accuracy of slightly over 92%. To complement predictive performance, explainable AI methods were applied to clarify model decisions, yielding practical insights that can guide future data collection strategies and improve diagnostic precision.