Canine Rabies in N’Djaména: A Metapopulation SEIR Model Incorporating Vaccination and Inter-Patch Distances

Abstract

Abstract Canine rabies persists in N’Djaména (Chad) despite vaccination campaigns exceeding 70% coverage, suggesting a role for dog mobility and spatial heterogeneity. We propose a metapopulation SEIR model incorporating distance-modulated dog movements and an explicit vaccinated class. Analysis of the isolated patch establishes global stability of the disease-free equilibrium via a Lyapunov function. For the metapopulation, a composite Lyapunov function shows that elimination is governed by a reproduction number ℛ v . Calibrated with field data (2012–2022), simulations reveal that uniform vaccination of both patches reduces ℛ v by 46% (from 2.84 to 1.52) but does not achieve elimination, while targeted strategies are less effective. These results demonstrate that exhaustive vaccination coverage across the entire urban network and increased vaccination intensity are necessary to eliminate canine rabies in N’Djaména. Our model provides a quantitative framework for planning effective control strategies.