Assessment of Geothermal Energy Potential in Morocco and Implications for Reliable Baseload Power and Green Hydrogen Supply

Abstract

Geothermal energy is often excluded from national planning because conventional assessments fail to translate subsurface uncertainty into useful metrics for energy planners. This paper develops a probabilistic framework to assess geothermal electricity potential at a national scale under early-stage uncertainty, explicitly designed to support risk-aware power-system planning. Using a play-based volumetric approach with Monte Carlo simulation, this study propagates subsurface uncertainty into electricity-system-relevant outputs for priority geothermal regions. Results are reported as P10–P50–P90 capacity ranges, distinguishing conservative, planning-robust estimates from higher-end outcomes conditional on exploration. Nationally, conservative estimates show geothermal can provide tens of megawatts of firm capacity, with significant upside potential. Sensitivity analysis confirms that uncertainty is dominated by reservoir temperature and effective volume highlighting the need for probabilistic treatment at early stages. The framework is transferable to other underexplored regions and offers a transparent basis for integrating geothermal into long-term planning and decarbonization pathways.