Assessment of Carbon Dynamics Using Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, and Cellular Automata in a Semi-Arid Region

Abstract

Soil Organic Matter (SOM) and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) are essential for regulating ecosystem functions, soil fertility, and influencing climate change processes, especially in semi-arid regions. The recent improvements in remote sensing instruments and the development of artificial intelligence methodologies, such as machine learning, enable an improved understanding of carbon dynamics, facilitate the estimation of SOC content, and support predictive modeling. This study presents an integrated framework to analyze past and future carbon dynamics in the Sfax Governorate (Tunisia). Land-use and land-cover (LULC) maps for the years 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2024 were generated using a Random Forest algorithm applied to multispectral satellite data in the Google Earth Engine platform, achieving high classification accuracy (overall accuracy up to 0.90). Carbon stocks and their temporal variations were estimated using the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model, while carbon emissions and the Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) were derived by integrating land-use-specific emission factors. Future LULC scenarios for 2030 were simulated through a Cellular Automata model under three alternative development pathways: conservation-oriented (CONS), business-as-usual (BAU), and urban expansion (URB+). The study demonstrates how the integration of machine learning, remote sensing, and ecosystem modeling supports spatially explicit assessment of SOC-related carbon dynamics and provides useful insights for land management and climate mitigation strategies.