Assessing the variability effect of land use patterns, rainfall and temperature trends on land degradation across Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> Land degradation remains a significant global challenge, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. This study employed remote sensing technology to investigate vegetation patterns and trends in rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Nigeria, from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on their impact on land degradation. The objectives were to assess spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover, temperature, and rainfall distribution; identify areas affected by land degradation; and evaluate the influence of weather variables on vegetation dynamics. Data from NASA Power and the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were combined with Landsat 8 imagery processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The analysis revealed substantial rainfall variability across Ibadan, with higher levels in the northern and central regions affecting vegetation health, as reflected by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Land surface temperature (LST) analysis indicated a moderate negative correlation with NDVI (r = -0.39), demonstrating that rising temperatures adversely impact vegetation health. Additionally, a weak positive correlation (r = 0.11) between land use and land cover (LULC) and rainfall highlighted the role of urbanisation in shaping temperature and precipitation patterns. The findings underscore the importance of sustainable urban planning and land management strategies, including green infrastructure and eco-friendly building practices, to mitigate the effects of weather variability on vegetation and land degradation.