Assessing Groundwater Sustainability in the Arabian Peninsula and its Impact on Gravity Fields through GRACE Measurements 

Abstract

This groundbreaking study addresses the imperative to comprehend gravity shifts resulting from Groundwater Storage (GWS) variations in the Arabian Peninsula. Despite the critical importance of water resource sustainability and its relationship with gravity, limited research emphasizes the need for expanded exploration. The investigation explores the impact of GWS extraction on the gravity field, utilizing Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data in addition to validation using WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). Spanning April 2002 to June 2023, the study predicts GWS trends over the next decade using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model.  The comprehensive time-series Analysis reveals a huge GRACE-derived GWS trend about -4.90±0.32 mm/year during the period of study. This significantly influences the gravity anomaly GA values, demonstrating a corresponding fluctuation in GWS time series. The projected GWS indicates a depletion rate of 14.51 km³/year over the next decade. The correlation between GWS and GA is substantial at 0.80, while GA and rainfall correlation is negligible due to low precipitation rates. Employing multiple linear regression explains 80.61% of the variance in gravity anomaly due to GWS, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The study investigates climate change factors—precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration—providing a holistic understanding of forces shaping GWS variations. Precipitation and evapotranspiration exhibit nearly equal values, limiting GWS replenishment opportunities. This research holds significance in studying extensive GWS withdrawal in the Arabian Peninsula, particularly concerning crust mass stability. Integrating GRACE and hydrological models’ datasets furnishes a comprehensive understanding, contributing valuable foresight into the future trajectory of GWS. The results illuminate intricate relationships between GWS, gravity anomalies, and climate factors, presenting a robust framework for sustainable water resource management.