Analysis of the sugar industry and climate drought challenges in the Lower Moulouya (Ne Morocco)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate-induced drought on sugar crops in the Lower Moulouya region, where four large, irrigated plains are found: Trifa in the Berkane province, and Sabra, Garb, and Bouarg plains in the Nador province. The study focuses on a monitoring period from 2000 to 2024, utilising statistical analysis of industrial variables in relation to annual rainfall in Zaio, Bouarg, and Al Aaroui. The findings reveal a statistically significant correlation between reductions in annual rainfall and decline in sugar beet cultivation and in industrial production indicators at the SUCRAFOR factory in Zaio. To test these results, the NDVI was applied to track the values of dense vegetation cover in irrigated plains, indicative of intensive industrial crops. The maximum NDVI values shifted from 0.5 in 2000 to 1 in 2009, then dropped to 0.5 in 2016, and reached 0.6 in 2024. Through analysis of satellite imagery using this index, a reduction in industrial crop areas over time was observed, decreasing from 13,686 hectares in 2000 to 11,341 hectares in 2009, then slightly recovering to 11,515 hectares in 2016, only to reach its lowest level in 2024 at an area of 8,057 hectares. The study adopted a descriptive approach, analysing production data and rainfall patterns. Field data were collected from the sugar factory and agricultural producers, then statistically analysed using Pearson's correlation coefficient to identify relationships between variables. To reinforce these findings, the NDVI was employed to monitor vegetation cover and assess trends in intensive and industrial crop cultivation.