Analysis of streamflow and rainfall trends and variability over the Lake Kariba catchment, Upper Zambezi Basin

Abstract

ABSTRACT Hydro-meteorological trend analysis is critical for assessing climate change and variability at basin and regional levels. This study examined the long- and short-term trends from stream discharge and rainfall data in the Lake Kariba catchment. A trend and change point analysis was carried out on the mean, minimum and maximum monthly average time series for 14 gauging stations that are located within the Kariba catchment. The Mann–Kendall and the Pettitt tests were used to determine the trend and any changes in the long-term average of the time series. The magnitude of the trend was determined by Sen's slope method. The results indicate that generally there has been a decreasing trend in river and rainfall long-term mean values across the catchment. A statistically significant trend (p ≤ 0.05) was observed at Zambezi River at Lukulu, Senanga and Victoria Falls, with a positive correlation in Pearsons's coefficient of water levels and rainfall at Lukulu (0.312) and Senanga (0.365). The decrease in the time series trend and the change point observed have been attributed to anthropogenic activities, climate change and variability impact on the catchment. The findings are critical for climate risk management and reduction decisions for near- and long-term timescales.