Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Dynamics (1981 to 2021) in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on rainfall and temperature dynamics in Bahi and Mpwapwa Districts , Dodoma Region, Tanzania , over 41 years (1981–2021). The study used historical temperature and precipitation data from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA). The dataset was analyzed using linear regression and the Mann -Kendall trend test using MS Excel (2010) and SPSS V20. The results indicate slight increases in annual rainfall in Mpwapwa (3.717mm) and Bahi (2.743mm). However, mean decadal precipitation analysis reveals that Mpwapwa experienced a decrease in rainfall during the first three decades , followed by a significant increase in the most recent ten years . Conversely, the amount of rainfall in Bahi remained relatively consistent throughout, except for the last ten years, when there was an increase in precipitation compared to the earlier decade . However , the Mpwapwa district is observing an increase in the number of rainy days, whereas Bahi is experiencing a decrease. Additionally , both districts have encountered a notable rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures . These changes , particularly the increase in temperature and fluctuating rainfall , significantly impact agro-pastoral communities in these semi-arid regions . The study underscores the need for these communities to implement stronger adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.