Analysis of Future Solar Power Potential Using CORDEX-CORE Ensemble in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

Abstract

Renewable energy is an important pillar of decarbonization in reducing the impact of climate change. Among the renewable energy sources, solar photovoltaic energy is one of the fastest-growing across West Africa, especially in Côte d’Ivoire. However, its dependence on weather and climate could affect future power system operations. This study aims to quantify how climate change could affect future solar PV potential in Côte d’Ivoire under the RCP8.5 scenario. For this purpose, we used three regional climate model simulations (RCMs) generated by the new high-resolution Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the Africa domain (AFR-22). Future changes were computed for two time slices: the near future (2021–2040) and the middle future (2041–2060), relative to the reference period (1986–2005). The performance of the RCMs and their ensemble mean in simulating relevant climate variables was first evaluated with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite-based (SARAH-2) data during the reference period. Our results indicate that all available RCMs and their ensemble mean reasonably simulate the annual cycle and the spatial patterns features of surface solar radiation, near-air temperature and solar PV potential in Côte d’Ivoire. We also conclude that Côte d’Ivoire is expected to experience a moderate decrease in annual mean solar PV potential during the mid-21st century. The average decrease in solar PV potential over Côte d’Ivoire could range from 0.55% to 2.16% in the near future and from 1.30% to 3.50% during the middle future, according to the considered RCMs. This decline in solar PV potential will be particularly noticeable during the period from June to October in all climatic zones. Overall, these findings provide valuable information for renewable energy planners to ensure the long-term success of solar PV energy projects in the context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire.