An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Effect of Morocco’s Commitment to African Continental Free Trade Area on Trade with African Countries, Using Panel Data

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents an ex-ante analysis forecasting the potential effects of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on trade between Morocco and other African countries. Using panel data from 53 African countries over the period from 1990 to 2022, and employing Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares ( DOLS ), the findings indicate that a 1-point reduction in the average weighted and effectively applied tariff on Morocco’s exports to African countries is associated with a 0.6 % increase in exports. Similarly, a 1-point reduction in the average weighted and effectively applied tariff on Morocco’s imports from African countries results in a 0.45 % increase in imports. These findings suggest that the effective implementation of AfCFTA could improve Morocco’s trade balance with African countries in the long run.