An assessment on the long and short-run effects of population growth on economic growth in Tanzania

Abstract

This article assesses the long and short-run effects of population growth on economic growth in Tanzania using granger causality and cointegration. Time series data for the period of 1990 to 2021 were used to validate the findings on granger causality and cointegration. Data were obtained from the World Bank, and were processed using STATA software version 17. Vector error correction model was applied to examine if the regression model provides good fit before testing long run and short run causality. Test statistics show the existence of long-run effects of population growth on economic growth through labour force, market and effective use of resources like land, water and forests. Thus, the government should design a population growth strategy combined with institutional and policy changes to ensure population growth is beneficial to the country’s economy.