An Assessment of Markov Chain as a Predictive Tool for the Global Performance of an Institution of Higher Learning

Abstract

The Markov chain (MC) technique is used to make prediction of the ranking of a university in South Africa. The ranking is approached as a stochastic variable. The data were extracted from Scimago in the prediction process. A university was randomly selected to evaluate the level of prediction of the MC method. The university was relatively low ranked. The MC states for this study were adopted from a previous one, based on performance brackets. The Markov chain displayed a satisfactory level of prediction for the probability of a university moving from one level to another. The distribution of university rankings could be well defined to determine the performance of a university.