An Analytical Study of the Most Important Food Security Indicators for Oil Crops in Egypt

Abstract

The research problem was the presence of a nutritional gap in vegetable oils for soybean, sunflower, and corn crops, which averaged during the period (2008-2022) about -213.2, -246.1, and -26.5 thousand tons, respectively. The research aimed to estimate food security indicators and predict the amount of production, consumption, imports, and the rate of self-sufficiency during the period (2008-2022). The results showed that by examining the general trend equations for the variables of the study, it was found that there was an increase in the amount of production, consumption, imports, exports, and the per capita share of soybean oil. As for the gap, it took a decreasing trend, while the self-sufficiency rate took an increasing trend.As for sunflower oil, studying the general trend equations for the study variables during the period (2008-2022) showed that there was an increase in the amount of consumption and imports, which amounted to about 0.02 and 0.74 thousand tons, respectively. As for the amount of production, exports, average per capita income, the food gap, and the self-sufficiency rate, they have taken a decreasing trend.By estimating the general trend equations for corn oil during the same period, it was found that there was an increase in the amount of production, consumption, and imports. As for the quantity of exports, the food gap, and the self-sufficiency rate, they have taken a decreasing trend.By estimating the strategic stock of soybean, sunflower, and corn oil during the period (2008-2022), it was found that it amounted to about 53.1, 31.4, and 8.4 thousand tons, respectively, which is sufficient to consume approximately 2.3, 2.3, and 5.6 months, respectively.By estimating the food security factor for soybean, sunflower, and corn oil during the same period, it was found that it amounted to about 0.13, 0.12, and 0.23, respectively, which indicates food insecurity for the three oils.By estimating the predictive values ​​of the studied variables until the year 2035, it was found that there was an increase in both production and the self-sufficiency rate of soybean oil, which amounted to about 561.5 thousand tons, 73.21%, respectively. While consumption, imports, and the food gap were shown to decrease. As for sunflower oil, it was found that there was an increase in the amount of production and imports, as well as an increase in the food gap, while there was a decrease in the amount of production and the self-sufficiency rate by about 6.4 thousand tons, 1.59%, respectively. As for corn oil, it was found that there was an increase in production, consumption, imports, and the food gap. While the self-sufficiency rate decreased to about 10.37%.