A research agenda for mountain futures

Abstract

Mountain regions are at the forefront of global change challenges, facing accelerating transformations in ecosystems, cryospheric, and hydrological systems. These biophysical changes, combined with limited infrastructure, restricted livelihood diversification, food insecurity, and lower incomes, are eroding the resilience of mountain social-ecological systems (SES). Drawing on insights from 25 case studies across 18 countries and five continents, we present a global synthesis that validates and operationalizes five key principles for sustainable mountain futures through the lens of uncertainty, translating them into a contemporary research agenda for mountain SES: (1) co-producing knowledge across scientific, Indigenous, and dynamic local systems builds shared understanding and trust under uncertain futures. (2) Bridging social and biophysical sciences reveals system feedback and thresholds that drive uncertain development pathways. (3) Integrating local and transboundary scales strengthens adaptive capacity across spatial and temporal uncertainties. (4) Leveraging scenario-thinking approaches supports collective anticipation and the co-creation of transformative pathways. (5) Ensuring effective anticipatory governance and flexible institutions fosters learning and decision-making amid persistent uncertainty. Together, these principles offer a framework for engaging with uncertainty to foster resilient, inclusive, and sustainable mountain futures.