A predictive analysis of risk factors contributing to low examination registration rate by secondary schools’ learners in Zimbabwe’s rural areas

Abstract

The study investigates the risk factors that contribute to low examination registration among secondary school learners in Zimbabwe’s rural areas. Data was collected from 525 secondary school learners who had failed to register for their ordinary and advanced level examinations from 2019 to 2023. Regression modeling was used to assess the impact of four major categories of independent variables that included family characteristics, learner characteristics, access-based factors, and school-level factors. Using regression analysis, findings revealed that failure to register for the examination was mostly influenced by family characteristics, with an estimated variation in examination registration of around 35.4%, followed by learners’ characteristics with a variation of 24.7%, school-based factors with 16.0%, and access factors at 13.3%. Analysis of sub-factors revealed that the low examination rate in rural areas was mostly explained by factors associated with affordability that were exacerbated by vulnerability associated with the learner’s characteristics. The study recommended a holistic approach to improving examination registration around the harmonization of current social protection schemes, community empowerment, and learner’s specific educational needs assessments and interventions.