A Mathematical Model for Newcastle Disease Transmission with Vaccination and Quarantine Implications for Poultry Development

Abstract

Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral infection that poses a serious threat to poultry production worldwide, particularly in developing countries. In this study, a deterministic compartmental mathematical model is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Newcastle Disease in a poultry population. The total population is divided into seven epidemiological classes: susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infectious, symptomatic infectious, quarantined, recovered, and vaccinated birds. The model incorporates key control strategies including vaccination and quarantine.Qualitative analysis of the model is carried out by establishing the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. The basic reproduction number is derived using the next generation matrix approach and shown to govern the threshold behavior of the disease. Global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established using a Lyapunov function and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Numerical simulations are performed to support the analytical results and to illustrate the effects of different infection seeding scenarios. Peak analysis, bar charts, and heatmaps are used to compare outbreak intensity and timing across compartments. The results show that vaccination and quarantine significantly reduce disease burden and delay outbreak peaks. Effective quarantine can prevent disease invasion even in the presence of infected birds, while inadequate vaccination allows persistence of the disease. The findings provide useful insights for the design of effective control strategies against Newcastle Disease in poultry populations