A hybrid CARIMA-SARIMA-Logistic model for Energy-CO2 transition in Africa: Evaluating five paths to Net-Zero by 2050 under scenario conditions

Abstract

• Hybrid CARIMA–SARIMA–Logistic model maps Africa’s net-zero pathways. • Five scenarios expose lock-in, acceleration and transformation futures. • Six indicators integrate energy supply, renewables, power and CO 2 . • FEEI, DAF and PTSI convert forecasts into policy-ready stress signals. • LCOE and IPUDC screens link decarbonisation with finance burden. • AGS gives deepest CO 2 decline but highest implementation stress. • Policy sequencing links auctions, grids, carbon pricing and finance. This study develops an interpretable review–case synthesis for evaluating Africa’s energy–CO 2 transition pathways to 2050 under deep uncertainty. It integrates evidence on fossil-fuel lock-in, renewable-resource potential, electrification deficits, climate vulnerability, financing constraints, and governance barriers with a scenario-conditioned CARIMA–SARIMA–Logistic forecasting framework. Six system indicators—total energy supply, renewable energy supply, electricity generation, renewable electricity, solar PV generation, and CO 2 emissions—are projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under five pathways: Worst-Case Scenario, Regular Operation Scenario, Technology-Driven Scenario, Accelerated Transition Scenario, and Aggressive Transformation Scenario. The hybrid architecture combines cumulative drift, residual temporal dependence, transition velocity, saturation capacity, and feasibility constraints, enabling transparent comparison between fossil-intensive continuation and accelerated decarbonisation. Results show a widening transition divide: WCS and ROS preserve high CO 2 outcomes despite rising energy supply, whereas TDS, ATS, and AGS progressively decouple electricity expansion from emissions growth. By 2050, AGS approaches the strongest net-zero-compatible outcome, reducing CO 2 to about 100 Mt while expanding electricity generation and renewable electricity substantially. The study further translates forecasts into governance-ready metrics, including the Future Energy Equality Index, Decarbonisation Acceleration Factor, Policy–Technology Stress Test Index, LCOE screening, and investment-per-unit-decarbonisation measures. These metrics reveal that ambitious pathways are technically feasible but financially stress-intensive, requiring sequenced reforms in renewable procurement, grid infrastructure, concessional finance, carbon governance, storage, regional power markets, and clean industrial policy. The framework offers a reproducible decision-support architecture for aligning Africa’s energy access, infrastructure resilience, industrial development, and net-zero ambition.