article · Discover Applied Sciences
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir offers notable potential for fishery development, requiring proactive governance to prevent overexploitation. A modified Schaefer bioeconomic model, integrating temperature-dependent carrying capacity and nonlinear catch-per-unit-effort dynamics, provides estimates for sustainable harvest levels. Using parameter values derived from comparable Ethiopian fisheries rather than direct local observations, the calculations project a maximum sustainable yield of around 8.48 tonnes per year at an effort level of 78.4 standardised units. An effort threshold of roughly 100 units marks a boundary beyond which fish stocks face collapse. Sensitivity testing confirms that the system responds strongly to temperature shifts and harvesting dynamics. To maintain ecological balance, recommended management actions include capping fishing effort below 75 units and deploying adaptive strategies informed by climate monitoring, alongside future on-site empirical validation.
Large dam reservoirs create new inland fishing opportunities that risk rapid collapse without clear ecological boundaries. By identifying precise thresholds for sustainable yields and population collapse, this modelling provides a quantitative baseline to balance local food production and livelihood generation with conservation, ensuring long-term resource viability under changing climate conditions.
This work offers a decision-support framework intended for fisheries authorities, reservoir managers, and environmental policymakers designing licensing and effort caps. As an early-stage theoretical model parameterised with proxy data from other Ethiopian fisheries rather than direct local measurements, it is not yet field-ready. Real-world deployment will require empirical validation with direct observations from the reservoir before it can operationalise commercial harvest quotas or regulatory tools.
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir presents a significant opportunity for fishery development, but proactive management is essential to avoid overexploitation. This study develops a modified Schaefer bioeconomic model that incorporates a temperature-dependent carrying capacity and a nonlinear catch-per-unit-effort function. Equilibrium and stability analyses identify sustainable harvest regimes, and numerical simulations quantify key management thresholds. Parameterized with published data from comparable Ethiopian fisheries (not direct GERD observations, which is a key limitation), the model estimates a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of approximately 8.48 tons/year at an effort level of 78.4 standardized units. A critical effort threshold of approximately 100 units is identified, beyond which population collapse occurs. Sensitivity analysis highlights the model’s responsiveness to temperature variation and nonlinear catch dynamics. We recommend an effort cap below 75 units to ensure sustainability, alongside adaptive management strategies that incorporate climate monitoring. This study provides a theoretical, data-informed foundation for science-based management of the GERD fishery, while emphasizing the need for empirical validation.
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DOI: 10.1007/s42452-026-09399-y
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