A 2026 horizon scan for biodiversity conservation in South Africa

Abstract

Horizon scans identify potential changes, enabling proactive rather than reactive conservation strategies. Here, in a follow up to the 2020 horizon scan, 14 biodiversity professionals from different sectors identify ten emerging issues potentially relevant to biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. The issues identified highlight three critical needs: adaptive governance systems, cross-sectoral collaboration capacity, and vigilance around new technologies that may simultaneously offer solutions and create new environmental pressures. We plotted these issues along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and condisderable levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only one issue was likely to be addressed with improved science alone, but the remainder were all "complex", requiring social, economic and political engagement.